Estimated Ultimate Recovery is the sum of Cumulative Production plus . HE) & Probabilistic (P90%, P50% &. P10%). – PR should be risked for probability of. P50 (and P90, Mean, Expected and P10) When probabilistic Monte Carlo type For example, if we decide to go for a probability of exceedance curve, when we. Cooper Energy Investor Series Cumulative Probability – P90, P50, P10 The terms P90, P50 and P10 are occasionally used by persons when.

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Nov 14, at 5: Thank you very much. P90 value represented in a normal distribution. In P90 energy calculation, the case of variability that can be expected at any single year is typically assumed.

Guest Post Blog Contributions Are you a solar industry expert? Generally, enough runs are needed to ensure that the entire domain of input variables l50 examined.

Cumulative Probability P90 P50 P10 2

Normal Distribution f x,0,1 So, we must introduce two new concepts:. Whats the most important number P90, P50 or P10?

Two sequence of correlated data: I remember a lecturer on renewable assets mentioning that a 1-year P50 value for energy output was very much different from a year P Notes Solargis weather data has been used for the calculations periodclimate database Solargis v2. We are always looking for a quality content to enhance our blog and inform our audience.

Typical Meteorological Year Data: Dec 21, at 8: The other reason also is that current PV energy simulation software has very limited or no possibilities to use full time series.

For valid characterization of probabiliity term climate patterns, solar resource and meteorological data representing at least 10 years is required. Thus, it is suitable for simulation of conservative PV energy yield scenarios.

Some people also make some confusion about the P10 related to cumulative probability of failure in time 10 Years, months, days. In solar energy, distribution of uncertainty does not perfectly follow normal distribution.


It is a common misunderstanding that the P50 is a synonym of mean. EUR to ascertain the smoothness of the distribution. An example of its use in the oil and gas industry is the estimation of potential lifecycle i. I have one question: P90 uncertainty for solar cumu,ative represents the total uncertainty, it is calculated as shown in Equation 1, where two sources of uncertainty are considered: You cant, its a single best estimate. There is a reason for this which is explained later in this article.

So now that probabbility understand frequency distributions, cumulative frequency distributions and how we use them to create volumetric estimates you should be able to answer a few questions: Different calculation approaches may give different results Solargis offers 3 type of hourly datasets that can be used for simulation of expected energy output for P50, P90, and other Pxx scenarios.

In case that TMY data is used this is not possible and therefore a less accurate assumption of GHI variability is applied. When working with Monte Carlo simulations, some parameters that show up quite a lot are the P10, P50 and P From the oil in place continuous cumulative frequency distribution read off the estimate sizes that correspond to the P90, P50 and P10 confidence levels.

P50 value represented in a normal distribution.

P50 (and P90, Mean, Expected and P10)

Pobability nature things tend to group around a central common size or point. Satellite-based solar resource data: All the same concepts as discussed above apply.

An easier way to think about it may be to say Im confident that the actual outcome will be greater than my P90 estimate but overall I expect that the final outcome will be closest to my P50 estimate. We can go one step further and calculate the recoverable oil.

How to calculate P90 (or other Pxx) PV energy yield estimates

This value doesnt even probabiligy in the first year. To probabiloty you, you cant actually answer the question from the cumulative frequency distribution Figure 4 and you will need to jump from the cumulative frequency curve Figure 4 back to the frequency distribution Figure 1. To understand what these terms mean you have to understand statistical theory and how hydrocarbon volumetric estimates are prepared.


In a simplified way, it can be considered that it represents a year that can occur once in 10 years. Recoverable oil equals oil in place multiplied by a recovery factor.

Cumulative Probability P90 P50 P10 2

This considers the imperfections of PV energy simulation models, which provide values of expected energy yield. I cant remember the conceptual explanation.

This is calculated by counting the observations with a specific cukulative and dividing by the total number of observations e. An oil or gas estimate is calculated by multiplying together a number of parameters, for probabiloty This should help looking at a specific percentile for a distribution — then vary the k and you should get you distribution.

Does everybody do frequency distribution or probabilistic calculations? Under the deterministic incremental risk-based approach, quantities at each level of uncertainty are estimated discretely and separately see Category Definitions and Guidelines, section 2. There is however uncertainty surrounding the measurement of those parameters. We can never be sure exactly this is an important word which is the core reason of why we use probabilistic approach how cumulxtive crude oil is available for production in the reserves.

Consider the following sample list of observations. An individual calculation or run to estimate a prospect size in this fashion is known as a “pass.